time：2024-12-06 source：高工鋰電
Since the official upper limit of lithium carbonate varieties by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in July 2023, it has played an important role in guiding the benign correction of lithium prices guided by futures prices. Nowadays, the spot price and futures price of lithium carbonate are highly synchronized, and the hedging effect on the subsequent inventory adjustment of lithium battery enterprises is becoming more and more obvious.
Recently, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the adjustment of the designated delivery warehouse for lithium carbonate futures, adding companies such as Golmud Zangge Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Changjili New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Ningdu County Ganfeng Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., Guangzhou Tianci High tech Materials Co., Ltd., Guangdong Bangpu Xunhuan Technology Co., Ltd., and Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co., Ltd. as designated delivery factories for lithium carbonate futures.
From the newly added manufacturers, it can be seen that there are many leading companies in the lithium battery field, such as Tianci Materials, backed by CATL's Bangpu Cycle, Ganfeng Lithium, and so on.
At first, the lithium carbonate trading mechanism of Guangzhou Futures Exchange was not fully recognized by the industry. Due to past trading habits and concerns about the quality of products delivered by Guangzhou Futures Exchange, most lithium battery manufacturers adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and some lithium salt manufacturers did not participate in the futures trading of Guangzhou Futures Exchange.
However, after more than a year of market turmoil, coupled with the industry's familiarity with futures trading. Guangqi Exchange's lithium carbonate trading has become an important way for major lithium battery manufacturers to obtain raw materials. Not only Ningde Times and Tianci Materials, but also Penghui Energy, Xinzhoubang, Longpan Technology, Tianji Shares, Tianqi Lithium Industry and others have carried out hedging of lithium carbonate.
In addition, it can also be seen that the price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated in the past year, but the magnitude of price fluctuations has significantly decreased compared to 2022-2023.
During this process, the lithium carbonate trading of Guangqi Exchange played an important role.
On the one hand, in the downward trend of lithium carbonate prices, middle and downstream battery and material manufacturers can reserve low-priced lithium carbonate, transferring inventory from upstream to middle and downstream, ensuring smooth and orderly production when lithium prices rebound sharply; On the other hand, the launch of Guangqi's lithium carbonate market provides a new shipping platform for lithium salt manufacturers, which invisibly promotes the release of upstream lithium salt supply.
At present, the manufacturers participating in futures trading are mainly material and battery manufacturers, while some lithium salt manufacturers mainly operate spodumene and lithium mica. In contrast, salt lake lithium extraction manufacturers have low enthusiasm for participation, which is also related to the significant cost advantage of salt lake lithium extraction. In addition, salt lake lithium extraction has relatively small production capacity and higher shipping freedom.
Looking back at the price trend of lithium carbonate in the second half of this year, the demand for gold, silver, and silver exceeded expectations, and the production reduction of Australian mines was the main factor driving the rise in lithium prices. Therefore, in October, the mid-term futures contract for lithium carbonate once exceeded the price of 90000 yuan/ton, causing a sharp rise in the stock prices of lithium salt companies in the secondary market.
Returning to the supply and demand level, short-term market sentiment affects the trend of lithium prices, but in the long run, the basic downward trend of lithium prices has not changed.
Firstly, the incremental release of lithium carbonate is expected to reach a peak in 2025, including the first phase of 50000 tons of lithium carbonate from the Mamichuo Salt Lake in Zangge Mining, which will be put into operation before the end of 2024; Tianqi Lithium's Talison Chemical Grade No. 3 Lijing Mine is expected to be completed and put into operation by 2025. The Chilean Copper Commission predicts that 22 new lithium mining projects will be put into operation by 2025, adding 500000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, or causing an excess supply of 191000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2025, further increasing the magnitude of the excess supply.
The possibility of a significant increase in demand is relatively small. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has exceeded 50% and is currently experiencing a slowdown in growth. In the foreign market, due to Trump's "return to gasoline vehicles" strategy, the growth of the North American electric vehicle market will also slow down. Some segmented markets such as commercial vehicles and ships have a faster growth rate, but the overall base is relatively small.
From the perspective of cost reduction and efficiency improvement, recent news of BYD and SAIC Maxus requesting suppliers to lower prices further indicates that the intensity of competition in the end market has not changed, and downstream manufacturers are still continuing to pressure upstream prices.
More noteworthy is that December is approaching, and the 2025 Spring Festival is earlier than usual. The lithium battery industry is facing a transition from peak to off peak seasons, and lithium prices will also enter a phase of downward trend. In addition, the supply negotiations at the end of the year are concentrated, and the inventory and stocking of lithium battery companies at the end of the year have become the primary targets.
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